There has been a notable shift in Americans’ preferences for dairy products in recent years, influenced by a variety of factors. Younger generations, particularly Millennials and Gen Z, are more likely to reduce dairy consumption, often driven by sustainability and wellness trends. This contrasts with older generations, who tend to keep traditional dairy products in their diets.

Overall, while dairy remains a significant part of many Americans’ diets, the landscape is changing, with growing demand for more conscious consumption.

Overall growth

Data from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) reports per capita consumption of all dairy products reached 653 lbs per person in 2022, 63 lbs above the historical average dating back to 1975, when USDA began tracking per capita dairy consumption.

“If it’s made with dairy and it can fit on a plate, in a bowl, or in your favorite mug, chances are Americans are loving it more than ever before. Today’s dairy is different because dairy is always evolving to give Americans what they crave,” said Michael Dykes, president and chief executive officer, International Dairy Foods Association (IDFA). “The data from USDA demonstrate how consumers continue to choose dairy products even as they exercise cost-conscious shopping, illustrating how dairy remains affordable and accessible to all people. Dairy is more than a food or beverage — it has become an essential part of our lives, in more than 95% of US households on any given day.”

Fluid decline

Despite the positive growth data across most dairy product categories, the outlier in Americans’ love affair with dairy is fluid milk, where consumption has steadily decreased over the past two decades, reaching a new low in 2022, the USDA data show.

Milk has long been a grocery staple for most US households, and 92% of them consume dairy milk, according to MilkPEP. However, as dietary habits change, individuals are drinking less milk on average. The USDA, Economic Research Service (ERS) Food Availability (Per Capita) Data System shows that US daily per capita consumption of fluid milk decreased over each of the past seven decades.

Between 1990 and 2000, it fell from 0.78 cups to 0.69 cups (an 11.5% decline). By 2010, it was down to 0.62 cups (10.1% lower than it had been in 2000). Compared with each of the previous six decades, US daily per person fluid milk consumption fell at its fastest rate in the 2010s. In 2019, it was 0.49 cups (20.7% lower than 2010).

Underlying the long-run downward trend in milk drinking are differences in the eating and drinking habits of newer and older generations. A 2013 ERS report shows that newer generations are consuming less fluid milk than preceding generations. Individuals born in the 1970s, for example, drank less milk in their teens, 20s, and 30s than individuals born in the 1960s did at the same age points.

Those born in the 1980s and 1990s, in turn, appear likely to consume even less fluid milk in their adulthood than those born in the 1970s. These differences across generations reflect in part their unique eating choices as children. Every decade brings a wider selection of beverage choices at supermarkets, restaurants and other food outlets.

Nutritionists have pointed out that consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages such as soft drinks and juice drinks increased during the 1980s and 1990s and appeared to be replacing milk. However, in recent years, US per capita consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages has also declined.

Using data on households’ beverage choices between 2013 and 2018, ERS researchers examined households’ purchases at retail grocery stores of milk, soft drinks, 100% juice and juice drinks, bottled water, and coffee and tea drinks. They found little evidence that consumption of one beverage was offset by consumption of another. Competition between milk and these other major beverage categories was found to have little effect on milk purchases over those years.

There was, however, evidence that plant-based milk alternatives, such as almond milk and soy milk, do compete with fluid cow’s milk. ERS research using household scanner data confirms that sales of these beverages are negatively affecting purchases of fluid cow’s milk. Still, the increase in their sales is much smaller than the decrease in sales of fluid cow’s milk, so plant-based milk alternatives can explain only a small share of overall sales trends. Sales of plant-based milk alternatives may be contributing to sales trends for fluid cow’s milk, but are not likely to be a primary driver of those trends.

Encouraging consumption

Several USDA programs — the National School Lunch and School Breakfast Programs, the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC), and the Special Milk Program — encourage consumption of fluid cow’s milk and overall dairy consumption. Schools participating in the National School Lunch Program, for example, must offer students 1 cup of milk with each lunch.

When analyzing the 2003–2018 dietary records of teenagers and children, ERS researchers found that children aged 6 through 12 years obtained 35% of their fluid milk at schools, while teenagers aged 13 through 18 years obtained 25% of their fluid milk at schools. Consumption of fluid milk was also higher for both groups on weekdays, when schools are generally in session, than on weekends.

Additional efforts to increase milk consumption can be attributed to MilkPEP. Funded by milk processors and governed by a nationally representative processor board, the MilkPEP program was created by a 1990 act of Congress to increase dairy milk consumption through consumer marketing. The goal is to educate consumers, and drive awareness and demand for milk.

MilkPEP’s strategic approach to promoting milk nationally includes high-impact marketing materials that can be customized at the local level. MilkPEP’s most notable campaign remains the iconic “Got Milk?” ads of the 1990s and early 2000s.

One of MilkPEP’s most recent campaigns, Every Woman’s Marathon, has positioned milk as the beverage of athletes, touting its 13 essential nutrients, including high-quality protein, calcium, zinc, selenium, and vitamins B12 and D, as well as electrolytes for much needed hydration.

After sponsoring women runners at the 2022 New York City Marathon, this year the organization is sponsoring every woman running any marathon who signs up for Team Milk. Milk’s 26.2 program will spotlight female runners’ journeys, provide female-centric training resources, and nutritional, mental and physical advice from sports experts. Milk aims to create a running community for women, powered by women.

“We knew marathons were the perfect space for milk to support after we uncovered that 70% of female runners seek additional protein during their marathon race preparation, with over half expressing a desire to incorporate more B12, vitamin D, and calcium into their training diets,” said MilkPEP CEO Yin Woon Rani. “Milk has all of that and more in one affordable glass that helps runners fuel, build lean muscle, and rehydrate and recover post-run.”

Dietary guidelines

The Dietary Guidelines for Americans (DGA), 2020–2025, recommend individuals consume 2 to 3 cup equivalents of dairy products per day depending on their age, gender and level of physical activity.

One cup of fluid cow’s milk, 1 cup of yogurt, 1.5 oz of natural cheese, or 2 oz of processed cheese each contribute 1 cup equivalent toward meeting daily dairy recommendations. One cup of fortified soy beverage also counts as 1 cup equivalent of dairy product. Other plant-based products bearing two-part names (almond milk, rice milk, coconut milk, oat milk, hemp milk and others) are not included as part of the dairy group, because their overall nutritional content is not similar to that of dairy milk.

Despite government and industry efforts, about 90% of the US population does not meet the Dietary Guidelines’ dairy recommendations.

IDFA submitted comments to the 2025 Dietary Guidelines Advisory Committee (DGAC) urging the panel to maintain and enhance dairy’s role as a core component of a recommended healthy diet for Americans. IDFA also urged the DGAC to restore dairy to its draft conclusions on dietary patterns associated with favorable outcomes for body weight and obesity in adults. The DGAC — a committee of 20 nationally recognized nutrition and public health experts — is reviewing the current body of nutrition science and developing a scientific report to inform the federal government’s development of the 2025-2030 DGA. The DGAC is expected to publish its report in late 2024.

In written comments, IDFA highlighted the latest science demonstrating dairy is a key component of healthy eating patterns associated with better health outcomes. IDFA noted that the preponderance of scientific evidence contradicts the outdated DGA recommendation that Americans avoid dairy at higher fat levels.

“Dairy products are an unparalleled source of essential nutrients that support health across all life stages,” said Roberta Wagner, senior vice president of regulatory and scientific affairs, IDFA. “Ensuring a variety of dairy products are accessible to everyone will promote healthier dietary patterns and better health outcomes nationwide.”

Health conscious

One of the areas affecting consumers’ relationship with dairy is health. This drives consumer trends toward products for personal health and wellbeing. Claims for several health benefits that can be tied to nutrients in dairy products are expanding, according to Innova Market Insights. These include joint health, skin health and brain health.

Holistic health also offers opportunities for dairy products. Mental wellbeing is part of holistic health for nearly two-thirds of consumers.

New dairy products with mental health benefits include an Italian dairy product that contains valerian to promote sleep and relaxation, along with vitamin B6 to address tiredness and fatigue.

In the coming decades, there will be more older Americans than children, and population growth will be driven more by immigration than by natural rate, according to a report from economic firm Terrain.

The report explains that as consumers age, they become interested in maintaining health and enjoying retirement, seeking out healthy aging products and nutrition shakes.

“As demographic makeup changes, the product mix in the US will change, and with it, the demand for dairy components like milk fat and skim solids,” noted Terrain’s senior dairy analyst Ben Laine.

Consumer trends support foods that are both healthy and indulgent, and consumers show willingness to compromise on indulgence for healthier food. Dairy trends show that dairy products offer the best of both worlds, including ice cream and frozen yogurt with active health claims.

The versatility of dairy is one factor driving its growing popularity, according to Dykes.

“That love for dairy is especially important now, when so many shoppers are careful with their spending, underscoring that dairy remains affordable and nourishing to consumers at all income levels,” Dykes said.

Product innovation is also helping to keep the category strong, he explained.

“Americans and consumers around the world are rediscovering the joys of their favorite dairy food while finding new, innovative products that meet specific nutritional and health needs,” he said. “Today’s dairy is different because dairy is evolving. All of US dairy should be proud of this growth.”