WASHINGTON — The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) in its Aug. 12 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report raised from July its US sugar production forecast but lowered its delivery outlook for 2024-25, resulting in record-high sugar production and an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 15.87%, which is above the USDA’s target range of 13.5% to 15.5%.

A lower production estimate for 2023-24 was more than offset by higher imports and lower domestic deliveries, boosting the ending S-T-U ratio for the current year to 16.14%.    

The USDA forecast 2024-25 US sugar production at 9,514,000 tons, up 189,000 tons, or 2%, from July, including beet sugar at 5,363,000 tons, up 127,000 tons, or 2.4% “due to a (USDA) forecast of national sugar beet yield of 32.9 tons per acre (higher than last year’s 31.2 tons per acre) resulting in a strong sugar beet production forecast of 35,708,000 tons,” the USDA said. Cane sugar production was forecast at 4,141,000 tons, up 61,828 tons, or 1.5%, due to a like increase in Florida. If realized, beet, cane and total sugar production in 2024-25 would be a record high.

Imports were minimally changed. Total imports for 2024-25 were forecast at 2,933,000 tons, down 6,000 tons, based on a 3,000-ton drop in tariff-rate quota imports, at 1,644,000 tons, and a 3,000-ton reduction in high-tier imports, at 299,000 tons. Imports from Mexico were unchanged from July at 790,000 tons, and can next be adjusted in September under terms of the US-Mexico suspension agreements.

Total sugar supply in 2024-25 was projected at 14,490,000 tons, up 240,006 tons from July.

Deliveries for food next year were forecast at 12,300,000 tons, down 50,000 tons from July, carrying forward a like reduction in deliveries for 2023-24. Exports were unchanged at 100,000 tons, and total use was projected at 12,505,000 tons, down 50,000 tons.

Ending stocks in 2024-25 were projected at 1,985,000 tons, based on a 57,000-ton increase in beginning stocks, a 189,000-ton increase in domestic production, a 6,000-ton reduction in imports and a 50,000-ton reduction in domestic deliveries. The ending stocks-to-use ratio of 15.87% was up from 13.5% in July.

For the current marketing year, the USDA estimated beet sugar production at 5,118,000 tons, down 60,970 tons from July “on higher processor-reported shrink, a small reduction in sucrose recovered from sliced beets and a reduction in sugar from desugared molasses,” the USDA said. Cane sugar production was estimated at 4,053,000 tons, up 11,689 tons, on a like increase in Florida “on processors’s Sweetener Market Data reporting of production occurring in June.” Total sugar production was estimated at about 9,171,000 tons, down 49,281 tons from July.

Imports in 2023-24 were forecast at 3,689,000 tons, up 69,368 tons, or 1.9%, from July based on higher imports from Mexico and record-large high-tier imports. Imports of sugar from Mexico were estimated at 515,000 tons, up 10,551 tons from July. Total high-tier imports were estimated at a record 1,088,000 tons, up 58,817 tons, or 5.7%, from July “on the strong pace through early August.” Raw sugar high-tier imports were estimated at 761,664 tons, up 61,664 tons from July, refined at 267,153 tons, down 2,847 tons, and sugar from imported molasses at 58,899 tons, unchanged. If realized, high-tier imports would be up 139% from 2022-23.

Total supply in 2023-24 was forecast at 14,702,000 tons, up 20,086 tons from July and up 17,000 tons from 14,685,000 tons in 2022-23.

Exports for the current year were estimated at 241,000 tons, unchanged from July, domestic deliveries at 12,300,000 tons, down 50,000 tons from July and down 173,000 tons, or 1.4%, from 2022-23, and “other” at 118,000 tons, up 13,000 tons from July “mostly on deliveries for re-export sugar-containing products.” Total use was estimated at 12,659,000 tons, down 37,000 tons from July.

“Although October-June cane sugar deliveries are up 271,000 tons over the same time period last year, beet deliveries are down 139,000 tons and direct consumption imports are down even more by 328,000 tons,” the USDA said.

Ending stocks on Sept. 30, 2024, were forecast at 2,043,000 tons, up 57,086 tons, or 2.9%, from July, with the ending stocks-to-use ratio at 16.14%, up from 15.6% in July and from 14.3% in 2022-23.

The USDA forecast Mexico’s 2023-24 sugar production at 4,704,000 tonnes, actual weight, down 4,000 tonnes from July. Imports were estimated at 797,000 tonnes, up 50,000 tonnes from July, with imports for consumption at 660,000 tonnes “on entries occurring in June on high domestic prices resulting from low production, and on an appreciation in the dollar-peso exchange rate. Imports for IMMEX are unchanged at 136,726 tonnes,” the USDA said. Domestic use was estimated at 4,540,000 tonnes, down 90,000 tonnes “due to increased imports of lower-priced high-fructose corn syrup. HFCS is projected to constitute 26.6% of sweetener consumption, above the 10-year average of 25.4%.” Exports were estimated at 441,000 tonnes, up 9,000 tonnes. Ending stocks were forecast at 1,355,000 tonnes, up 126,517 tonnes, or 10%, from July.

For 2024-25, Mexico’s sugar production was projected at 5,094,000 tonnes, unchanged from July but up 390,000 tonnes, or 8%, from 2023-24. Imports were unchanged from July at 25,000 tonnes. Domestic use was lowered 8,000 tonnes to 4,653,000 tons. Exports were projected at 845,000 tonnes, up 137,000 tonnes from July. “Exports to destinations not under export license are residually projected at 168,646 tonnes. Exports to the United States are unchanged at 676,045 tonnes.” Ending stocks in 2024-25 were lowered 1,000 tonnes from July to 977,000 tons.

Image: Sosland Publishing Co.