ITHACA, NY. — Consumers using GLP-1 weight-loss drugs reduce their grocery spending nearly 6% on average, with notable decreases in purchases of sweet and salty foods and snacks, a study by Cornell University’s S.C. Johnson College of Business and consumer data research firm Numerator revealed.

Cornell and Numerator’s report, The No-Hunger Games: How GLP-1 Medication Adoption Is Changing Consumer Food Purchases, examined 2,623 households with at least one GLP-1 user, culled from a sample of 22,712 households after Numerator’s 150,000-household US consumer panel was surveyed on GLP-1 drugs in four waves between October 2023 and July 2024. Researchers tracked grocery expenditures six months before GLP-1 adoption and six months afterward.

“The results reveal a gradual and sustained decline in grocery spending during the six months following GLP-1 adoption, consistent with the known effects of these medications in reducing appetite and overall food intake,” according to the study, released Dec. 29.

Decrease in grocery purchases

Grocery spending by households with at least one GLP-1 user fell by about 5.5% six months after the medication was adopted. Based on an average monthly grocery expenditure of approximately $630, the overall 5.5% decrease translates to a $416 annual reduction in purchases per household, the researchers said.

Higher-income households showed bigger cutbacks in post-GLP-1 grocery spending. Households earning more than $125,000 per year reduced their monthly grocery purchases by 8.6% six months after GLP-1 use began, representing an annualized decrease of $690. That figure was more than double the 4.2% reduction, or $270 annualized, for households with less than $125,000 in yearly income and at least one GLP-1 user.

“This represents a substantial decline, especially considering the narrow profit margins with which grocery stores typically operate under,” the study said.

Biggest hit to salty and sweet snacks

Cornell and Numerator’s research also found clear trends in GLP-1 drugs’ impact when examining 40 grocery store product categories generating the highest expenditures. Among categories, chips, sweet bakery, side dishes and cookies showed some of the largest reductions in spending following GLP-1 use, decreasing by an average of 6.7% to 11.1%.

“Overall, the results show that GLP-1 users reduce spending on high-calorie, high-sugar or high-fat items,” the study said.

Consumers using GLP-1 medications for weight loss cut spending on chips and other savory snacks and on sweet bakery items by more than 10% six months after starting their drug regimens, according to the No Hunger Games report.

Categories showing spending decreases of 5% to 10% among GLP-1 weight-loss drug users were side dishes (including frozen), salad dressings and oil, cheese, cookies, soft drinks, baking ingredients, meat (including frozen), butter, eggs, spices and condiments, ice cream and whipped cream, pasta (including frozen) and grains, jam, frozen meals and pizza, candy and chocolate, canned and frozen fruit and vegetables, and seafood (including frozen).

“Users exhibit the largest reductions in spending on ultra-processed categories, such as sweets, snack foods and other calorie-dense items,” the study said. “Sweet bakery items, a category potentially associated with impulse purchases, also show one of the largest spending decreases. In contrast, nutrient-dense options, such as yogurt and fresh produce, are least affected. These patterns align with the appetite-suppressing effects of GLP-1 medications, which are known to reduce food cravings, with the most pronounced effects observed for calorie-dense products.”

Reduced indulgence rather than healthier preferences

Cornell and Numerator noted that shifts in spending behavior were “relatively similar” whether GLP-1 users were taking the medication for weight loss or for diabetes management. Though GLP-1 weight-loss users showed slightly larger spending reductions, the difference versus diabetes users was “not statistically significant,” the study found.

Likewise, changes in grocery spending patterns by GLP-1 users didn’t necessarily indicate an intentional shift toward purchasing healthier fare, the researchers determined.

“Interestingly, we do not observe statistically significant increases in spending on traditionally healthier products, such as fresh produce or whole grains, across all adopters,” the study’s authors explained. “However, among weight-loss users specifically, there is a modest increase in spending on fresh produce and yogurt. The primary dietary change appears to be a reduction in high-calorie items, which by construction shifts the proportional spending toward healthier options, even without a substantial increase in the quantity of those items. Essentially, the composition of their grocery baskets becomes healthier more by cutting back on unhealthy items than by adding more healthy ones.”

The No Hunger Games study also looked at GLP-1 drugs’ impact on food-away-from-home spending — focusing on limited-service outlets such as fast-food chains, coffee shops and quick-service restaurants — and found some changes in terms of mealtimes.

Data showed decreased spending by GLP-1 users at breakfast time (5:00 a.m.-10:59 a.m.) and dinner time (4:00 p.m.-8:59 p.m.), “suggesting that GLP-1 users adjust both their meal timing and consumption patterns” for food away from home, the report said. Similarly, higher-income households with at least one GLP-1 user were more likely to cut back on their breakfast consumption, whereas GLP-1 adopters in lower-income households exhibited larger spending reductions for dinner.

Challenges, opportunities for food industry

When researchers examined trends 12 months after GLP-1 use began, the impact on grocery and food-away-from-home spending was less pronounced.

“While the magnitude of spending reductions diminishes after six months, the effects remain negative and statistically significant,” the study said. “This partial reversal may be driven by factors such as compliance challenges, waning drug efficacy or measurement limitations. Anecdotally, some users report that the appetite-suppressing effects weaken over time, necessitating dosage adjustments to sustain efficacy.”

Still, going forward, the food industry will face “both challenges and opportunities” as GLP-1 medicines “reshape” consumer purchasing patterns for food, according to Cornell and Numerator.

“Companies that rely heavily on calorie-dense, processed or indulgent foods are likely to face declining demand and need to reassess their product portfolios to remain competitive,” the study concluded.

Changes in consumption patterns due to the appetite-suppressing effects of GLP-1 drugs are “likely to prompt targeted adjustments” in product formulations, portion sizes and packaging by food companies, researchers noted.  

“Consumers on GLP-1 medications are expected to gravitate toward smaller portions and products emphasizing health and convenience, such as single-serving or portion-controlled options for nutrient-dense items like fresh produce, yogurt and nutrition bars,” the report said. “Repackaging to provide these formats will be critical for targeting this evolving consumer segment.”