WASHINGTON — The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) in its Dec. 10 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report raised its forecast of the 2024-25 US sugar ending stocks-to-use ratio to 13.5% from 11.7% in November, as lower beginning stocks and domestic beet sugar production was more than offset by higher imports from Mexico and high-tier imports.

USDA is required to balance for a 13.5% ending stocks-to-use ratio in December under stipulations of the US-Mexico agreements suspending countervailing duties on sugar from Mexico.      

Beginning stocks for 2024-25 were forecast at 2,099,000 short tons, raw value, down 63,000 tons, or 2.9%, from November, but up 256,000 tons, or 14%, from 2023-24.

USDA forecast 2024-25 US sugar production at 9,226,000 tons, down 50,000 tons (or 0.5%, from November), with beet sugar at 5,160,000 tons, down 50,000 tons (1%), and cane sugar at 4,066,000 tons (unchanged). USDA lowered the beet sugar production forecast “on lower amounts of sugar extracted from sugar beet molasses.”

Most changes were made in the import category, with total 2024-25 imports forecast at 2,926,000 tons, up 345,000 tons (13%) from November, but down 885,000 tons (23%) from 2023-24.

Imports from Mexico were forecast at 620,925 tons, up 225,963 tons (57%) from November and up 100,000 tons (19%) from 521,000 tons last year, “to meet US needs as stipulated this month in the CVD suspension agreement administrated by the Department of Commerce.”

High-tier imports were forecast at 476,493 tons, up 118,712 tons (33%) from November, but down 755,000 tons (61%) from a record 1,231,000 tons in 2023-24.

“High-tier raw sugar imports are increased 118,712 short tons, raw value, to 161,313 (tons) on actual imports recorded by Customs and Border Protection through the first week of December,” USDA reported.

The forecast also included 260,535 tons of high-tier refined sugar imports, unchanged from November, with sugar from molasses unchanged at 54,645 tons, also unchanged. Tariff-rate quota imports were unchanged from November at 1,628,000 tons, as were other program imports at 200,000 tons.

Total sugar supply in 2024-25 was forecast at 14,251,000 tons, up 231,466 tons (1.7%) from November, but down 771,000 tons (5%) from the prior year.

Sugar deliveries for food in 2024-25 were projected at 12,350,000 tons, unchanged from November, as an increase of 46,000 tons in 2023-24 was not carried over to the current year. Deliveries for food in 2024-25 were forecast down 50,000 tons from 2023-24 and down 123,000 tons from 2022-23.

Exports were forecast at 100,000 tons, “other” at 105,000 tons, miscellaneous at zero and total use at 12,555,000 tons, all unchanged from November.

Ending stocks in 2024-25 were projected at 1,696,000 tons, up 232,000 tons (16%) from November, but down 403,000 tons (19%) from 2023-24.  

Mostly minor changes from November were made to 2023-24 estimates. Production was estimated at 9,305,000 tons, down 63,000 tons from November, with beet sugar at 5,172,000 tons, down 64,000 tons, and cane sugar at 4,133,000 tons, unchanged. Imports were estimated at 3,811,000 tons, up 46,032 tons from November based on re-export imports estimated at 271,521 tons, up 46,032 tons. Imports from Mexico were unchanged at 521,000 tons, and high-tier imports at 1,231,000 tons.

Total sugar supply in 2023-24 was estimated at 14,959,000 tons, down 17,000 tons from November.

Deliveries for food use in 2023-24 were estimated at 12,400,000 tons, up 46,000 tons from November, but down 73,000 tons from 2022-23. Exports, “other” and miscellaneous use were unchanged, putting total use at 12,860,000 tons, up 46,000 tons from November.

Estimated 2023-24 ending stocks were 2,099,000 tons, down 63,000 tons from November, dropping the ending stocks-to-use ratio to 16.3% from 16.9% in November and compared with 14.3% in 2022-23.

The USDA made no changes from November to 2023-24 estimates or 2024-25 forecasts for Mexico’s sugar supply and use.

“Although 2024-25 total exports are projected unchanged (from November) at 1,006,000 tonnes, exports under license to the United States increase 139,469 tonnes and are exactly offset by a like-reduction of exports to countries not under license,” USDA said.